Fiasco for the Ages: Obliterating the Biggest & Most Costly Lie in Modern History

"It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard — is what makes it great!"

Nov 20, 2024

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

— Attributed to Mark Twain

The rotor speed required to separate uranium isotopes doesn’t care who’s president, and when it comes to ascertaining the truth, neither do I.

In order to maintain such speeds, the material properties of centrifuges are as critical as it gets. You don’t need to interview a world-renowned nuclear scientist to figure that out — but I like to be thorough. To claim that Iraq WMD wasn’t a lie should be like saying we didn’t land on the moon. As I wrote and produced the most exhaustive documentary ever done on WMD, I would know:

As I said in my doc:

The question comes down to whether or not you’re basing your belief on something in the realm of reason — not some fail-safe fantasy that allows you to believe whatever you want.

— Richard W. Memmer: Act III

Hmm . . .

On the the biggest and most costly lie in modern history (a fiasco for the ages that shaped everything you see today):

Half the country took the word of professional know-it-alls over nuclear scientists. And when your camp came up empty on WMD — you just bought more bullshit from the same people who sold you the first batch:

Shrewd!

Preach Responsibility and Take None!

Vs.

You can’t seem to comprehend that I don’t care what damage the truth inflicts upon politicians of any brand. I have this crazy idea that across-the-board accountability is always in the best interests of the nation. As for my frustration — I have this thing about people who regurgitate nonsense in the face of overwhelming evidence that counters their baseless beliefs.

— Richard W. Memmer: Act II

Speaking of expertise:

My doc was designed as a tool to solve problems by addressing the psychological gymastics of human nature across-the-board (as in exposing how the Left & Right have gone out of ther minds): Believing in some of the stupidest shit imaginable and taking pride in it, no less.

This is a way to sell books, build a following, and be celebrated for accomplishing absolutely nothing:

The Death of Expertise Division: Never in History Have So Many Cared So Much and Done So Little

And when your efforts predictably fail to move the needle (as with all efforts of conventional thinking): Your audience will eagerly await your next edition:

Never questioning the efficacy of their efforts or yours!

And why bother when failure is a pretty profitable enterprise these days (and it's so much easier to complain about problems than do the work it takes to solve some).

Building on his enormously successful first edition. Tom Nichols confirms his thesis and proves that the assault on expertise has only intensified.

So, outside of selling books and building a following, you didn’t succeed — at all. When a deservingly popular book didn’t make a dent in 7 years (and everything’s gotten worse to boot): I fail to understand the excitement for an expanded edition doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of making a dent either.

Such questions don’t compute with this crowd or any other.

People who talk glibly about “intelligence failure” act as if intelligence agencies that are doing their job right would know everything.

— Thomas Sowell

DOE’s standard is to spin a tube at 20% above 90,000 RPM before failure — so 48,000 short is a pretty loose definition of “rough indication.” . . . Out of 31 tubes in subsequent testing, only one was successfully spun to 90,000 RPM for 65 minutes — which the CIA seized on as evidence in their favor.

One DOE analyst offered a superb analogy of that contorted conclusion: “Running your car up to 6,500 RPM briefly does not prove that you can run your car at 6,500 RPM cross country. It just doesn’t. Your car’s not going to make it.”

In an industry where fractions of a millimeter matter, these guys were playing horseshoes with centrifuge physics . . .

— Richard W. Memmer: Act II

Between Sowell’s words and mine — which ones strike you as glib?

By Design

America Remains Mired in the Murky

What does it say to you that on evidence claimed as components to build a nuclear bomb — the “debate” was hijacked by 10-second sound bites?

Shouldn’t any debate establish what the debate is actually about? What does it say about a country that can’t even establish that much on a matter of this magnitude?

As I said in my doc:

All the sarin gas shells in the world would have no bearing on the aluminum tubes and other intel, but loyalists to logical fallacies are not burdened by the inconvenience of FACT.

They will nitpick over pebbles while refusing to even glance at the mountain of evidence that crushes their “convictions.”

— Richard W. Memmer: Act V

For the sake of argument: Let’s say Saddam had full-blown active WMD programs on chemical & biological weapons. The tubes would still be a lie — whether the war would have been justified in that scenario or not. I’ll go one further: Let’s say he had a uranium enrichment program in operation as well, but that the rotors were carbon fiber — not aluminum.

Once again, the tubes would still be a lie.

Getting lucky in finding something you didn’t know about — does not absolve you from a case that was woven out of whole cloth.

The road to reality is blocked by detours designed to keep you going in circles. Purveyors of poppycock reroute you with narratives that avoid detail like Black Death. The way out is to start with an inconsistency or two that’s narrow in scope — and take the trail where it leads.

To ascertain the truth on any topic:

If you’ve got something concrete to go on — that’s your point of entry. By all means, keep the door open in every direction. But by nailing down the definitive first, it paves a clearer path to all the rest.

This country does the exact opposite on everything — lumping it all together and never even approaching where you should have started in the first place:

This chart is misleading in several respects . . . Beams centrifuge never actually worked . . . We can infer . . .

Sounds pretty sloppy to me!

Perhaps we should have a conversation to clear up what all this means on matters of world-altering consequence that have eroded reason beyond recognition?

The surgical specificity of this clip puts this lie in its place in 5 minutes alone.

Trillion Dollar Tube

Imagine what I did with 160

“There is no skimming over the surface of a subject with [Hamilton]. He must sink to the bottom to see what foundation it rests on.”

— Major William Pierce (Ron Chernow, Alexander Hamilton)

Wouldn’t it be absurd to share that quote if my clip contained nothing but trite talking points? Some circles are not burdened by squaring their walk with their talk. They seem to think that advertising virtue equates to embodying it.

Case in Point

Between Sowell’s Words and Mine — Which Ones Strike You as Glib?

In addition to interviewing world-renowned nuclear scientist, Dr. Houston Wood (among the world’s preeminent experts on uranium enrichment): I also corresponded with David Albright (the physicist above who wrote extensively on the tubes) — as well as Colin Powell’s chief of intelligence at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

Greg Thielmann said the following in 2013:

It will be up to Iraqis to debate whether their country now has a brighter future than it otherwise would have had without foreign invasion and occupation in the first decade of the new century. But it is uniquely incumbent on Americans to understand who and what were responsible for an enterprise that proved so costly in terms of U.S. lives lost, money spent, international reputation tarnished, and a campaign against al Qaeda diverted.

Hmm . . .

Meaningless Majority: How the CIA Rigged the NIE Vote to Take Us to War in Iraq

America just casually moved on. I didn’t — as I knew then what few know now: The immeasurable value in the willingness to be wrong, understanding why, and looking to learn from it.

And that not doing so — increasingly compounds the consequences of no accountability.

Look around!

My writing revolves around how people allow emotion to run roughshod over reason when their interests are at stake.

When I returned from interviewing Dr. Wood — the aftermath of the Zimmerman verdict was just kicking into full-bore folly. And that gave me a golden opportunity to illustrate irrational behavior without showing any favoritism.

Debunking the WMD delusion & Trayvon tale is a conduit for showing how this nation systematically derails debate.

Unlike most of America: I don’t have situational rules!

We’re well beyond “disagreement” in America — this is madness (countless millions miserably failing to follow even the most fundamental methods of how understanding works). I fail to understand how you think we can solve anything in a country that can’t even get the self-evident straight.

The second you shun evidence that doesn’t fit the narrative you want — you have contaminated your judgment. How quickly you come to your conclusions — and what you’re willing to ignore to solidify them:

That is the underlying message of my efforts.

3 minutes and 33 seconds into the Prologue — the parallel in the Profile Principle is revealed (an exemplary example of applying the same rules to both sides). On that issue of world-altering consequence (where regurgitated garbage was seen solid gold).

Rather spend even a few minutes digesting what someone’s saying instead of selling, you gotta get back to broadcasting beliefs you just abandoned. 3 minutes and 33 seconds: